Which method would provide the most reliable sales forecast for newly launched products?

The most reliable sales forecast for newly launched products is best achieved through focus groups and consumer surveys. This approach directly engages potential customers, allowing businesses to gather firsthand insights into consumer preferences, perceptions, and the potential demand for the new product. By assessing how target consumers respond to the product concept, design, and features, companies can better estimate the market's reception.

Unlike historical sales analysis, which relies on past sales data and is less applicable for new products with no prior performance record, focus groups and consumer surveys provide current, relevant feedback that is essential for accurate forecasting. Executive opinion can offer valuable insights based on experience and intuition, but it may not reflect actual consumer behaviors. On the other hand, competitor sales data might provide useful benchmarks, but it can be less effective in predicting the performance of a new product with unique features and target audiences that differ from competitors.

In summary, using focus groups and consumer surveys allows for a more informed and targeted approach to forecasting sales for newly launched products by incorporating real-time consumer insights.