What method of sales forecasting is least dependent on historical data?

The method of sales forecasting that relies the least on historical data is test marketing. This approach involves introducing a product to a limited market to gauge consumer response and sales potential in a real-world setting. Since test marketing examines current market conditions and consumer preferences directly, it does not heavily lean on historical sales figures or trends from the past to predict future sales. Instead, it focuses on contemporary customer behaviors and responses, allowing for the collection of first-hand data regarding how the product performs when actually available to consumers.

The other methods inherently rely more on historical data or established patterns. Surveys of buyer intentions gather current insights but often reference prior behaviors. Expert opinions can provide forecasts based on experience and data trends, while market analysis typically examines existing market research and historical performance metrics to make predictions about future sales, making them more dependent on past data than test marketing.